What is a housing market phase?

A market phase describes where a local housing market sits in its cycle: expansion, peak, contraction or recovery. Knowing the phase tells an investor whether prices are still building, topping out, unwinding or bottoming, which shapes entry timing, exit expectations and how much distressed supply to expect.

How does DLRadar classify each county’s phase?

Every U.S. county is classified deterministically from home-price index trend and drawdown from prior peak, using public FHFA and housing data. Because the classification is rules-based, the same inputs always produce the same phase, and you can see the year-over-year move and drawdown that placed a county where it is.

How does market phase connect to distressed deals?

Contraction and early-recovery counties tend to generate the most motivated sellers and below-market entries, so pairing the phase radar with ZIP-level foreclosure and distress data helps you focus on markets where discounts are actually forming.

/preview/market-phase

Market Phase — HPI Cycle Radar

Classifies every US county and ZCTA into a market cycle phase using FHFA HPI YoY + drawdown trajectory and county headwind. Raw inputs preserved; only phase classification is derived.

live route in platform → /market-phase

See plans →Watch the live board →Live aggregates free on the home page · plans monthly, cancel any time

3,150

Counties

33,643

ZCTAs

3.11%

Avg YoY (cty)

3.17%

Avg YoY (ZCTA)

2026-06-01

As of (cty)

2026-06-01

As of (ZCTA)

Counties by Phase

PEAK2,245 · 71%

EXPANSION570 · 18%

NEUTRAL133 · 4%

CONTRACTION165 · 5%

RECOVERY37 · 1%

ZCTAs by Phase

PEAK22,628 · 67%

EXPANSION6,644 · 20%

NEUTRAL1,658 · 5%

CONTRACTION2,120 · 6%

RECOVERY593 · 2%

Phase definitions

PEAK — high YoY, decelerating
EXPANSION — positive YoY, accelerating
NEUTRAL — flat YoY ± stable drawdown
CONTRACTION — negative YoY, deepening drawdown
RECOVERY — drawdown narrowing, YoY turning

In-platform you also get

• Per-county and per-ZCTA drill page
• State + phase filters with full county table (raw HPI YoY, prior YoY, Δ, drawdown, headwind, source, phase, confidence)
• Cross-link to Radar Markets, BankDistress, DLSpecial
• Methodology page

How DLRadar reads the housing market cycle

Market Phase Radar classifies every U.S. county by where it sits in the housing cycle — expansion, peak, contraction or recovery — using home-price index trends rather than headlines. Knowing a county's phase tells an investor whether to buy aggressively, hold, or wait, and turns a national market narrative into a local, county-by-county decision.

Year-over-year, drawdown and phase confidence

Each county shows home-price year-over-year change, peak-to-current drawdown and a phase-confidence score, all derived from deterministic public data. Combine market phase with distress and bank-stress signals to time entries where falling prices meet rising distress.

Housing market phase radar: common questions

What is a housing market phase?: A market phase describes where a local housing market sits in its cycle: expansion, peak, contraction or recovery. Knowing the phase tells an investor whether prices are still building, topping out, unwinding or bottoming, which shapes entry timing, exit expectations and how much distressed supply to expect.
How does DLRadar classify each county’s phase?: Every U.S. county is classified deterministically from home-price index trend and drawdown from prior peak, using public FHFA and housing data. Because the classification is rules-based, the same inputs always produce the same phase, and you can see the year-over-year move and drawdown that placed a county where it is.
How does market phase connect to distressed deals?: Contraction and early-recovery counties tend to generate the most motivated sellers and below-market entries, so pairing the phase radar with ZIP-level foreclosure and distress data helps you focus on markets where discounts are actually forming.