How to Tell Where Your County Is in the Price Cycle
If you want to know whether your county is rising, topping, correcting or rebuilding, you do not need a stack of reports. Three readings go a long way: the pace of price change over a year, the gap from the earlier high, and how reliable the label is. Here is a simple way to combine them.
- Start with year-over-year price change to see direction and speed, then check how far the index sits below its earlier high.
- A rising line close to its high suggests a different stage than a rising line still far beneath it.
- Check the confidence score to judge how cleanly the readings fit the assigned label.
- Remember that your county's price series may come from a wider area, so local streets can differ.
Step one: find the direction
Look first at the year-over-year change. Positive means prices are higher than twelve months ago; negative means lower. A small positive figure suggests a gentle drift, while a large one signals a brisk climb. This single number already separates the expanding crowd from the correcting crowd, and it is the quickest piece of evidence available for any county you care about.
Step two: measure the gap from the top
Next, ask how far prices sit below their best past reading. If the gap is nil, the county is at or near a high. If it is deep, a correction has taken place at some point, even if prices are climbing again today. Direction plus distance gives you two coordinates, much like latitude and longitude, and together they pin the county to a location on the cycle map.
Step three: read the confidence score
The radar attaches a score from zero to one hundred to each label. A high score means the readings sit comfortably inside that phase's rules; a lower one means the county is near a boundary and could easily be tagged differently next month. Treat borderline results with extra caution and look at a few months of history before drawing conclusions about where the county really stands.
Step four: check the price source
County price data is not measured separately everywhere. Many counties borrow their index from the metro area that covers them, from a non-metro series, or from the state. If you live in a county that shares a series with its neighbors, expect the same label for all of them. Knowing the source tells you how granular the picture really is.
Step five: add local texture
Once you have a label, layer on what you can see yourself: how long homes sit, whether asking prices are being trimmed, what builders are doing. These observations either support or complicate the label. The goal is not to prove the radar right, but to understand when the broad price story matches your street and when it does not.
The latest reading
The most recent run (June 2026) covers 3,150 counties, with an average year-over-year price change of 3.1 percent.
How to Tell Where Your County Is in the Price Cycle: questions
What is the fastest way to see my county's phase?
Find your county in the monthly classification, then read its phase and confidence score together. The label gives direction, the score gives reliability, and the two numbers behind it show speed and distance from the earlier high.
What if my county is shown as neutral?
Neutral means no strong directional signal in prices right now. Look at recent months to see whether it is settling after a decline or slowing after a run, since the label alone does not reveal the direction of travel.
Why might my local sense differ from the label?
The label reflects a county-wide price index, sometimes borrowed from a larger area. Your street or school zone can behave differently, and sentiment often lags or leads the numbers, so differences are normal and worth investigating.
How often should I recheck?
Monthly is sensible, since classifications refresh on that schedule. Checking more often adds little because the underlying index does not update daily, and a single month rarely tells the whole story.