Market Phase by ZIP: the HPI Cycle Radar (2026)
The market-phase card classifies a ZIP into one of four phases, expansion, peak, contraction or recovery, from two FHFA readings: the year-over-year price change and the drawdown from the ZIP's own peak, each compared with the prior reading. It is the price-cycle read on a dossier, with a confidence score and the county's phase beside it. This report gives the phase mix nationwide, the ZIPs furthest below peak and the rule behind the labels.
- 33,643 ZIPs carry a market-phase label as of 2026-06-01: 22,628 Peak, 6,644 Expansion, 2,120 Contraction, 1,658 Neutral, 593 Recovery.
- The average year-over-year price change is 3.2%; 2,120 ZIPs show falling prices, and the average drawdown from peak is -0.3%.
- 71949 in Garland County, AR sits furthest below peak on the market-phase card at -9.5%, Contraction phase.
- Phase is a trajectory rule on two FHFA readings, so a ZIP can move phase without its price changing sign.
market-phase: the market-phase card figures as of 2026-10-20; source FHFA house-price indices for ZIPs and counties.
| ZIP (county, state) | Drawdown from peak | HPI YoY | Phase | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71949 (Garland, AR) | -9.5% | -1.6% | Contraction | 51.3 |
| 33946 (Charlotte, FL) | -9.3% | -3.2% | Contraction | 38.3 |
| 33917 (Lee, FL) | -8.8% | -1.9% | Contraction | 37.6 |
| 31305 (Mcintosh, GA) | -8.6% | -4.4% | Contraction | 100.0 |
| 31553 (Brantley, GA) | -8.4% | -4.3% | Contraction | 100.0 |
ZIP areas furthest below their price peak (market-phase, as of 2026-10-20)
ZIP areas furthest below their peak (market-phase)
71949 in Garland County, AR: -9.5% below peak, -1.6% year over year, Contraction, confidence 51.3; 33946 in Charlotte County, FL: -9.3% below peak, -3.2% year over year, Contraction, confidence 38.3; 33917 in Lee County, FL: -8.8% below peak, -1.9% year over year, Contraction, confidence 37.6; 31305 in Mcintosh County, GA: -8.6% below peak, -4.4% year over year, Contraction, confidence 100.0; 31553 in Brantley County, GA: -8.4% below peak, -4.3% year over year, Contraction, confidence 100.0. One row per county is shown because metro-level indices repeat across a county's ZIPs.
What market-phase measures
HPI year-over-year and the prior year's value, drawdown from peak and its prior value, the change in each, the HPI source (ZIP5 or metro), the phase, a confidence score and foreclosure pressure, all repeated for the county so the ZIP can be read against its region.
How market-phase is computed
The rule is trajectory: rising prices with no drawdown is expansion; rising prices that are slowing with a small drawdown is peak; falling prices with a deepening drawdown is contraction; prices turning up from a drawdown is recovery. Confidence scores how clearly the two readings agree. Where a ZIP lacks its own index the metro index is used and labelled.
How to use market-phase on a deal
Buy distressed in recovery and late contraction, when the drawdown is deep but the trajectory has turned; sell into expansion. In a peak-phase ZIP a flip must close fast; in contraction a hold must be funded for the drawdown to finish. The card's prior readings show how fast the phase is moving.
Read market-phase on your ZIPs
The market-phase radar maps every ZIP and county by phase; the live board shows the card on each parcel.
Market-phase refreshes with its source table.
Market Phase by ZIP: the HPI Cycle Radar (2026): questions
Why does my ZIP show the metro index?
FHFA publishes ZIP5 indices only where there are enough transactions; elsewhere the metro series applies and the source field says so.
What is a drawdown of zero?
Prices are at or above their previous peak.
How often does the phase change?
The table is monthly; FHFA's ZIP series is annual, the metro series quarterly.
More on the market-phase card
Market Phase by ZIP: the HPI Cycle Radar (2026) (market-phase) is computed from FHFA house-price indices for ZIPs and counties; the market-phase card is research (market-phase), not legal advice; nothing on the market-phase page is tax or market-phase investment advice, so verify every market-phase figure with its issuing agency before acting.